Boys BB Open Division Projections

In the very first CIF Open Division boys final ever played in 2013, Archbishop Mitty’s Aaron Gordon battles for a shot against Mater Dei. Photo: Willie Eashman.


After all CIF section boys basketball champions are crowned by Saturday night, it’ll only take a few minutes before many in the media and some coaches will start to think about Sunday when the CIF state office will release its pairings for the upcoming Northern California and Southern California regional playoffs. We start thinking seriously about it this week, though, and here are the possibilities not just on which teams may be seeded at the top but about which teams have the highest probabilities of going to the Open Division in the first place.

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Note: In all previous years of the Open Division in basketball, which began during the 2012-13 season, the CIF has posted a series of criteria that it would use for selecting which teams that were eligible for the Open Division. There also was a 50 percent rule that stated no section could have more than 50 percent of the teams in any bracket of any division in the NorCal or SoCal playoffs. Neither guideline is in place starting this season, which for the Open Division means that a section can have more than four of the eight teams in either the North or South brackets.

SOCAL BOYS

1. Sierra Canyon (Chatsworth) 23-3
Based on our own rankings, the Trailblazers are the projected winner of Saturday’s CIF Southern Section Open Division championship when they face Mater Dei. They upended previously unbeaten and defending CIF Open Division state champ Bishop Montgomery in the semifinals.

2. Mater Dei (Santa Ana) 22-6
If the Monarchs win on Saturday, they would be the top seed in this bracket. If they lose, they would be ranked behind Bishop Montgomery in all state and national rankings but for the CIF pairings they likely would go higher as the CIFSS runnerup. Each section determines its own pecking order of teams that is given to the CIF and for the CIFSS it has almost always placed its runner-up team higher than a team that lost in the semifinals.

Head coach Doug Mitchell and team at Bishop Montgomery still looking for CIF Open Division title repeat. Photo: Willie Eashman.


3. Bishop Montgomery (Torrance) 27-1
If there ever was a year for the CIF and the CIFSS to seed a semifinal loser ahead of the CIFSS runner-up, then this would be it. The Knights bounced back from their only loss of the season on Wednesday night with a win over Etiwanda in a CIFSS Open third-place game. Montgomery even has a head-to-head win over Sierra Canyon so if Mater Dei were to win in the final on Saturday the likelihood of the Knights being seeded second behind only the Monarchs makes even more sense.

4. Etiwanda 28-3
Before the Eagles lost to Mater Dei in the CIFSS Open semis and then again to Bishop Montgomery on Wednesday, they were 28-1. They were seeded second when the bracket began. It looks fairly certain they’ll be fourth starting the SoCal Open Division.

5. Foothills Christian (El Cajon) 26-5
We’re projecting head coach Brad Leaf’s club to win the CIF San Diego Section Open Division title over Mission Bay and then would be seeded fifth for the SoCal Open Division. Whether it’s either Fairfax or Westchester that wins the L.A. City Section Open title on Saturday, the Knights have head-to-head wins over both. Foothills Christian won its semifinal game on Wednesday over Mater Dei Catholic of Chula Vista.

6. Westchester (Los Angeles) 28-5
The Comets are the top seed in the L.A. City Open but have split with their rivals from Fairfax. We moved the Lions higher in our rankings since they won the second game. Who knows who will win in the L.A. City final?

7. Fairfax (Los Angeles) 22-8
You look at those eight losses and they’re all to elite teams and some of them by razor-thin margins. Best win might have been one against NorCal power Bishop O’Dowd after the Lions lost to them by two points at the NorCal TipOff Classic.

8. St. John Bosco (Bellflower) 23-7
Well, on Wednesday night, the projected bottom of the SoCal Open bracket got very interesting when the Braves knocked off Crespi of Encino in the CIFSS Open consolation final. Plus, Torrey Pines of San Diego, which was 28-2 and thought to be a co-favorite with Foothills Christian in the SD Open Division, was beaten by Mission Bay. Head coach Matt Dunn’s squad lost most of its games in the Trinity League but also had a win against Mater Dei. If Mission Bay were to win the SD Open title, that might cause Bosco not to make it into the SoCal Open. If Foothills Christian were to win, we think the Braves clearly become the No. 8 team. Would they if Mater Dei was sitting at the No. 1 seed? We know how much the CIF doesn’t like rematches or league rivals to be playing in a regional opener. If the SD Open runner-up even has a shred of a case to be put at No. 8, look for that possibility.

Other Teams

*Mission Bay (San Diego) 26-5. If the Bucs win the SD Open title over Foothills Christian (the two teams have split in two earlier meetings), they’ll go Open for the SoCal playoffs. If they don’t, we see them behind Bosco with a shot at the top seed for the D1 South bracket.

*The sixth team in the CIFSS Open Division pecking order would be Crespi of Encino, which just lost to St. John Bosco. A lot of SoCal fans may not even know that the CIF can much more easily take a fifth team this year up into the SoCal Open. With Fairfax and Westchester both having been top 10 state teams for almost all of the season and with one spot seemingly guaranteed to the SD Open winner, there won’t be a sixth from the CIFSS.

*The CIF Central Section teams can be placed in either the north or south Open Division brackets. That section’s top candidate for the Open Division is San Joaquin Memorial of Fresno. The Panthers are 24-6 and expected to beat Selma for the D2 section title. They have two wins over D1 section finalist Bullard of Fresno but haven’t played the other finalist (Central of Fresno). SJM also has a win over Modesto Christian (Sac-Joaquin Section D1 finalist). With one of the most dynamic players in the state, sophomore Jalen Green, the CIF would be wise not to stick the Panthers in any Open Division to increase the odds of them getting to a state final in another division. People would come to see Jalen play. If they were to go Open, though, it probably would be in the north rather than the south.

NORCAL BOYS

1. Salesian (Richmond) 29-1
The Pride moved to No. 1 in the state this week and is favored to beat Campolindo of Moraga on Saturday to win the CIF North Coast Section D3 championship. The NCS still has an enrollment component to its divisions so being D3 instead of D1 for this squad doesn’t matter.

2. Modesto Christian 24-3
Whichever team wins the CIF Sac-Joaquin Section D1 title, either the Crusaders or Sheldon of Sacramento, seems solid as the No. 2 seed for the North bracket. Modesto Christian beat Capital Christian on Wednesday night in the semifinals.

Nick Klarman has been a consistent 20-point scorer all season for Clayton Valley of Concord. Photo: Harold Abend.


3. Bishop O’Dowd (Oakland) 24-5
This team with a dynamite backcourt (Elijah Hardy & Naseem Gaskin) advanced to the NCS D2 final on Wednesday with a win over Alameda. Las Lomas of Walnut Creek (27-2) is the title game foe and is a good one if you believe the MaxPreps computer, which has the Knights at No. 7 in the state (even higher than the Dragons). We don’t see Las Lomas with any wins over top-tier state squads, but you never know.

4. Clayton Valley (Concord) 26-2
What will the CIF do with the Ugly Eagles if they were to beat Heritage of Brentwood in the NCS D1 final on Friday? That win, of course, is no sure thing. They don’t have a win over a top-level state team and even though the winner of the NCS D1 bracket likely will be placed behind Saleasian and O’Dowd by the NCS in its ranking order given to the CIF, a No. 5 state computer ranking will be staring the seeding committee in the face. That’s even higher than Mater Dei of Santa Ana. Will they ignore it? They should, but maybe not completely. The NCS D1 winner does look Open Division bound and if that winner is Clayton Valley its seed could be anywhere from fourth to eighth.

5. Sheldon (Sacramento) 26-4
An overtime win on Wednesday over Folsom pushed the Huskies into the SJS D1 final on Saturday against Modesto Christian. We’re projecting MC to win, but it’s a toss-up. If Sheldon wins, it would likely get the No. 2 seed in the NorCal Open bracket. If Sheldon loses, we’d still have them fourth in our rankings of these teams. We just don’t know what the CIF is going to do with Clayton Valley and its very high (but probably wrong) computer ranking.

6. San Joaquin Memorial (Fresno) 24-6
This may surprise many to see us place the Panthers this high on the NorCal Open board. But we wanted to do it as an alert to the possibility. First, SJM has a win over Modesto Christian on MC’s home floor and if MC wins the SJS D1 title that result won’t be ignored. MC did win in an even earlier matchup between the two, however. Second, SJM can go to either the NorCal or SoCal Open Division brackets by being from the Central Section and the NorCal bracket makes the most sense. A six seed? We did that because the Panthers already have played Salesian (projected No. 1 NorCal seed) and already have played Modesto Christian twice. If we’re projecting winners and Salesian, MC and O’Dowd all win section titles, O’Dowd would be a team that the Panthers haven’t played. SJM is a big favorite in the Central Section D2 final against Selma.

7. Bellarmine (San Jose) 23-3
The Bells are playing 11-14 Archbishop Mitty in the CIF Central Coast Section Open Division final. In many years of the NorCal Open Division, there’s been more than one CCS team involved. That’s not going to be the case this time. The Bells may drop to the No. 8 slot if they were to get upset by Mitty, but the CIF in that case may not want a team with a losing record in the NorCal Open Division at all so our best guess would be that no CCS teams would be in it.

8. Capital Christian (Sacramento) 22-8
In doing tweets on Wednesday night, it was forecast that all four SJS D1 semifinalists would be in the NorCal Open Division. That was before evaluating the San Joaquin Memorial situation, however, and in today’s simulation we only have three. Which one between Folsom and Capital Christian? Well, early in the season, the Cougars beat Folsom and also beat Sheldon. They lost to Sheldon later on in a rematch.

Other Teams

*Folsom (25-5) still has that great win from early in the season over Nevada powerhouse Bishop Gorman. Losing in overtime to Sheldon on Wednesday in the semis also can’t be dismissed. While we think the Bulldogs are one of the top eight in the north, the San Joaquin Memorial situation and the NCS getting a third team (Clayton Valley with that computer ranking) may put them in D1 where they would be no worse than a No. 2 seed.

*Las Lomas of Walnut Creek (27-2) is similar to Clayton Valley in that the Knights have a very high (No. 7) but hard to believe computer state ranking. If they can beat O’Dowd in the NCS D2 final, however, they certainly could jump into the NorCal Open discussion. O’Dowd might not necessarily drop all the way out of it, either.

*Heritage of Brentwood (27-2) won the best game of the night in the state on Wednesday 100-98 in two overtimes over Dublin in the NCS D1 semis. The Patriots will now play top seed Clayton Valley in the final. They don’t have as high of a computer ranking as the Ugly Eagles, but they avenged one of their two losses by winning on Wednesday. The other loss is to Serra of San Mateo and there are no other wins to point to over top-tier state squads. If Heritage wins on Friday over Clayton Valley that could push it into the top eight overall for the north. For us, though, that would push up a team like Folsom instead.

*Pleasant Valley of Chico (25-2) has a win over CIF Central Section D1 finalist Bullard of Fresno and has been dominant in the CIF Northern Section. The Vikings deserve to be in the discussion for the NorCal Open Division, but a bad loss to Sacramento is what takes them out. Will they be in D1 or D2 for the NorCal bracket? They’d have much better odds of course getting to the state finals in D2 and traditionally that’s been their bracket, but competitive equity seeding likely moves them up to D1.

Mark Tennis is the editor and publisher of Cal-Hi Sports. He can be reached at markjtennis@gmail.com. Don’t forget to follow Mark on the Cal-Hi Sports Twitter handle: @CalHiSports


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5 Comments

  1. Jack Nelson
    Posted March 1, 2018 at 9:14 pm | Permalink

    Hi Mark,
    Thanks for the very insightful article. I had thoght that the consolation title in the Open Division should go into the game along with the champion ,runnerup and third place winner and that way a team could not win a tate championship if they had more than one loss in post season play. But instead they guaranteed the first round winners would play in the regional open division and the first round losers would all play in Div I in the regionals but they still played out all the way to 7th place final which now means that the one team that ended up with 3 straight losses in post season play is now guranteed a spot in the Div I southern regional and that team , Santa Margarita has a legitimate chance to be the first team in USA high school basketball history to win a state championship and I do say legitimate as they finished a game in front of St John Bosco in the Trinity league behind league titlest, Mater Dei and they gave the Monarchs two tough games in league play . I did not know until your article that St. John Bosco was eligible for the open after the first round loss .It has always been possible and has been done quite a few times where a team has lost in CIF and came back and won the reigonal and state but never a team with two losses and now there is a chance a team with 3 losses in tournament play winning a state title in the same season and I think if someone told me last month that it would be possible that it could happen this year, I would have said the odds would be over a trillion to one against it happening in a hundred years but the odds sure changed in a hurry so we will have to see how it plays out.

    • Mark Tennis
      Posted March 1, 2018 at 9:27 pm | Permalink

      While our projections put Bosco in the eighth spot and we know from talking to the CIF that they “could” choose a fifth CIFSS team for the Open Division, there’s still a part of me that won’t believe they will take a fifth team until they actually do it. The difference this year I believe is that all of the CIFSS Open teams that lost these games will all be in D1. When they had a 16-team bracket, some of the teams that lost twice were in D2. For the teams, having these games (even when they are losses) probably is better than sitting around doing nothing for two weeks.

      • Jack Nelson
        Posted March 2, 2018 at 11:33 am | Permalink

        I agree with you about sitting around and not playing for two weeks like they did when they only played down to 5th place game and it is easier to set up the seedings for the regionals by playing it out but I still think that next season they should go to the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 5th teams goin on to the open Division Regional and the two game losers going back to Div one.

  2. TinyTim
    Posted March 4, 2018 at 10:33 am | Permalink

    Mark,
    Will the SS Open teams that don’t make the CIF South Open automatically go into the CIF South D1 playoffs (except for Rancho Christian which is an SS 3A team and therefore would go into CIF South D3) this year?
    Off hand, other than Salesian of Richmond, the North candidates appear pretty thin compared to those in the South, at least in the higher divisions (D3 and up). Hopefully, CIF will place the CS teams in the North.

    • Mark Tennis
      Posted March 5, 2018 at 11:34 am | Permalink

      As you probably now know, all CIFSS Open teams that are not in the SoCal Open are all in D1. That’s easier to do now that the CIFSS Open went to eight teams from 16.

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