1st Regional Bowl Game Projections

La Serna of Whittier head coach Andy George (left) hoists 2023 CIF D2-AA state title after win vs Grant of Sacramento. At right, players at Folsom, including QBs Brody Rudnicki and Ryder Lyons, celebrate after winning last year’s CIF D1-AA state title (the school’s sixth). Photos: Scott Kurtz & Mark Tennis / Cal-Hi Sports.

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There doesn’t seem to be any major changes to the format of the regional bowl games this year, but here are the reminders for all to keep in mind before you scan through all of the possible matchups we are mentioning.

First, there are always upsets in section playoffs in which the top seeded team in a bracket is knocked off in a section final or earlier. Each team listed in these projections is either the highest seeded team remaining in that bracket or it’s the team with the highest MaxPreps computer ranking.

For teams that are ranked in our own Cal-Hi Sports State TOP 50 or have been in our medium/small schools state rankings we are also going to tend to list those teams in the same order as our own rankings and not the computer. There have been medium/small schools state rankings compiled three times earlier this season. We’ll return to those for the week leading into the state finals and then there will be final medium/small plus our final five division format that goes back to 1975.

Second, teams can opt out of participating in the CIF regional/state championships. There haven’t been any in a division higher than D4 but there have been in the lower divisions, especially small schools from rural Northern California. There were no opt outs last season so it worked out perfectly to have 28 teams in the north and 28 in the south with the two Open Divisions on top. Teams opting out must inform the CIF by the time of their various section semifinals. If they don’t and then opt out, there is a fine and other possible sanctions for a school. If there is an opt out or two, the CIF would then have to stick a bye into one regional final and place a team directly into a state final.

The CIF has had a lot of flexibility in the past of moving teams from the CIF Central Section to the north or south brackets. It has historically been the case in the regional football games for schools in the Fresno area of the section to be in the north while those from the Bakersfield area have been in the south. Due to the numbers of teams in both regions, there really isn’t a way for the Central Section to have more than two teams in the north with four of its section champions in the south. See below why this year if the top seeded teams all win out, that will be easy to choose.

Travel also is a big priority for the CIF in some of the matchups and they do tend to not want to have teams that have already played each other playing again in a regional matchup. There also is a preference for teams from the same section not playing each other, but that can be impossible in the south where there are 14 teams from the Southern Section. Two years ago, the CIF was able to pull it off to have all 14 CIFSS championship teams playing a team from a different section in the regionals. The CIF usually doesn’t admit that more dollars coming in from a potential bigger gate is a factor in some of these decisions, but it just has to be a factor and we believe it has been in the past.

Each CIF section also provides its own list of teams to the CIF after its section finals are complete and in a recommended order of placement. The CIF doesn’t have to go by that order, but in most cases it does. The section commissioners already have been talking to CIF Associate Executive Director Brian Seymour about its various teams and they will have gone over a lot of the sticking points before the commissioners even meet up on Sunday morning, Nov. 30, to make the final selections. Seymour and CIF Executive Director Ron Nocetti also are known to go to games to see some of the top teams in person.

“By the end, the hardest part for us is finding locations for these games,” Seymour has said.

CIF state championship games on Dec. 11-12 will be played at Saddleback College (Mission Viejo), Buena Park High School and Fullerton Union High School District Stadium. Exact dates, times and locations will be revealed on Sunday, Dec. 6 after all of the regional winners are decided. Last season, the Open, D1AA, D1A, D2AA and D2A championship games were all held at Saddleback College. Saddleback College could have hosted a JC championship game last year on the Saturday of the CIF state finals, but lost in its previous game. If it’s a win this time, probably the middle Saturday afternoon CIF state final would have to be moved to Buena Park or Fullerton.

OPEN DIVISION
Santa Margarita of Rancho SM (CIFSS D1) 10-0 vs.
De La Salle of Concord (NCS Open) 10-0

Comments: It’s the same ‘ol same ‘ol as the last two CIF Open finals with De La Salle currently in the top spot for the north based mostly on its huge 35-32 win in September over SoCal powerhouse program Corona Centennial. If DLS had lost that game and Folsom for example went into the regionals at 13-0, then it perhaps would have been different. Folsom also has a win over Mission Viejo, but two overtime wins and another by one point. The CIFSS D1 champion has won in this game every time since 2016 (DLS won its last state title in the Open in 2015) and they’ve been lopsided matchups for most of the time. Santa Margarita has a one-point win vs Centennial, a one-score win vs Mater Dei but has been impressive lately. The other CIFSS D1 favorites include No. 2 seed Sierra Canyon, Mater Dei, St. John Bosco and Centennial.

Trent Mosley raises CIF state title trophy after he led Santa Margarita to win in Open Division final vs De La Salle. Photo: Scott Kurtz.

Folsom (Sac-Joaquin Sec D1) 10-0 vs. Serra of San Mateo (CCS Open) 9-1
Cathedral Catholic of San Diego (SD Open) 7-3 vs. Chaparral of Temecula (CIFSS D2) 7-4

Comments: It will be a super-tough call for the CIF if Folsom, Serra and Central East all win out as top seeds in their section playoffs. Folsom looks like the shakiest of the three due to all of the close wins that it has had, but the Bulldogs are the defending D1-AA state champs and if they win another SJS title they’re going to be in the same division and allowed to defend their state title. Serra is a huge favorite in the CCS as is Central East in the Central Section. We have Central East higher in our rankings, but if it’s between Serra and Central East over which one is going to play Folsom we think it may be Serra. The Padres have only lost to De La Salle (35-25) and they were an Open Division team three straight years from 2021 to 2023. Central East played Oak Ridge and won so if Oak Ridge were to finally take down Folsom in the SJS D1 playoffs then it’s an easy call for the likely Central Section D1-AA champions to be moved up to D1-AA for the regionals. Down south, it’s been San Diego Open vs CIFSS D2 for the last several seasons and we see nothing that would prevent that from happening again. Cathedral Catholic is not the top seed for SD Open in favor of Carlsbad, but is far in front of the Lancers in the section rankings. Chaparral is the top seed for the CIFSS D2 bracket and it would not matter if any other team wins that title. Its going to be in the D1-AA regional game.

DIVISION 1-A

Central East of Fresno (Central D1AA) 9-0 vs. Cardinal Newman of Santa Rosa (NCS D1) 8-2
La Serna of Whittier (CIFSS D3) 10-1 vs. Carson (LA City Open) 9-1

Comments: Central East is the defending state champion and probably is better this season even though it has had several top players injured and out for the season. Bengals fans should be aware that if by chance their team gets matched with Serra (San Mateo) for NorCal D1-AA that Serra has not hosted a regional playoff game since 2019. Your team therefore likely may be on the road for a second straight year even though it was on the road last year at Pittsburg. We have Cardinal Newman, based on our rankings, losing to De La Salle in the NCS Open final in two weeks and then beating either Pittsburg or San Ramon Valley for the NCS D1 title. It wouldn’t be shock if either Pitt or SRV wins that title, but we don’t know the status of various injured players for both of those teams. One of the biggest questions in the south is how high to place Carson. The Colts are huge favorites in the L.A. City Open and their only loss came to Palos Verdes (CIFSS D2 playoff team). We have placed them in D1-A opposite the CIFSS D3 champion, but the CIF may not match that due to the L.A. City Section’s lack of success in recent years. We could easily see the San Diego D1 winner being in this game, like it has before.

DIVISION 2-AA

Comments: Helix earned the SD D1 top seed and a top 50 overall state ranking with a big win in its regular season final vs Granite Hills. The Highlanders may have to beat Granite Hills again at some point to win their section title. Garces is one of three Bakersfield schools with top seeds in the Central Section playoffs. The Rams have four forfeit losses, but the way they have been winning in recent weeks (all players now eligible) has been impressive. Keep in mind for Los Gatos that if Pittsburg were to win the NCS D1 title that it has a head-to-head win over the Pirates and therefore would move up to D1-A and Pitt would be in D2-AA. At least we think that’s how it would be done. Del Oro has lost only to Folsom and Oak Ridge (both D1 in the SJS) and has emerged as a pretty solid favorite to win in the same division that last year produced CIF D2-AA state champion St. Mary’s of Stockton.

Caden Thompson is the QB for Helix of La Mesa that led team to come-from-behind win over previous state No. 33 Granite Hills of El Cajon. Photo: @HelixFootball / X.com.

Destiny Christian of Sacramento (SJS D3) 10-0 vs California of San Ramon (NCS D2) 6-4
Independence of Bakersfield (Central D2) 8-1 vs Quartz Hill (CiFSS D4) 10-1

Comments: Destiny Christian has a 28-27 win over Grant of Sacramento, but to win its section title will have to likey get past another unbeaten team in Woodcreek of Roseville (10-0). California is from the same league as San Ramon Valley and Monte Vista (NCS D1) and has a top 100 computer ranking. In the south, Independence not being in D1AA or D1A even though it has wins over both Bakersfield and Bakersfield Christian makes the Falcons a favorite for Central Section D2. For CIFSS D4, instead of top seed Chino Hills or defending champion La Habra, we have Quartz Hill as the listed team. The Royals have a 15-14 win over Chino Hills and didn’t have QB Dashawn Laporte (a transfer from Burbank) eligible until October. Quartz Hill beat Hart of Newhall last week, 35-14.

DIVISION 3-AA
Twelve Bridges of Lincoln (SJS D4) 8-2 vs. Hilmar (SJS D5) 10-0
Mary Star of San Pedro (SS D5) 9-1 vs. Shafter (Central D3) 9-1

Comments: Mary Star has a competitive loss to Carson as the only loss on its record and is top seed for its CIFSS division. Shafter comes from the same league as D3-A state champion Kennedy of Delano and has a slightly better computer ranking than Poway so at first we didn’t put the Generals in the same division as Kennedy. In the north, there was a game last season between two CIF Sac-Joaquin Section champions Sonora D5 and Woodcreek D3. This time, we have Hilmar as the D5 winner but not as dominant as Sonora so we have the Yellowjackets opposite SJS D4 Twelve Bridges. Hilmar has a very tough bracket to win that includes unbeaten Sutter and Escalon. If Sutter were to win out and so does Twelve Bridges, a matchup between those two schools not that far apart also makes sense.

DIVISION 3-A
Liberty Ranch of Galt (SJS D6) 10-0 vs. Half Moon Bay (CCS D2) 10-0
Poway (SD D2) 4-6 vs St. Francis of La Canada (CIFSS D6) 6-5

Comments: Liberty Ranch hasn’t played the same kind of tough schedule as Hilmar, but could be just as good or better with the players it has. Half Moon Bay has one of the best teams it has had in recent years and this time doesn’t have to move up to play in the top division of the CCS. We look for possible unbeaten matchups in the regionals and we think this is very good one. Poway and St. Francis are both top seeds in their brackets but while Poway had a bye last week St. Francis opened up with a win. Both have losses to teams from higher section playoff divisions.

Iosefa Leafoli was the leading tackler last season at Barstow. Photo: Barstow football / Instagram.com.

Comments: When it comes down to the end, we don’t think the CIF Northern Section is going to recommend that its D5 winner, Redding Christian, be considered as its top team for the NorCal games despite what a computer ranking might say. The D2 winner (top division in that section) should get the nod. Another big question for the NorCal board is what the CIF may do with the Oakland Section winner this time. It could still be McClymonds, but Oakland won in the two teams’ regular season matchup and neither has a win that one can point to like McClymonds teams of recent years that would merit a higher placement for the regionals. For the south, Kennedy of Granada Hills is lucky it didn’t get placed in the same Open Division as Carson. The D1 bracket may fit that unbeaten team well. We did not place the top seed for the CIFSS D7 playoff on our board, but instead went with the defending champions in that division (Barstow) as well as the team that won last year’s D4-AA state title. That also is the same division where we put the Aztecs to start this year’s projections.

DIVISION 4-A
Ferndale (NCS D5) 9-1 vs. Redding Christian (Northern D5) 10-0*
Rio Hondo Prep of Arcadia (CIFSS D8) 8-3 vs Steele Canyon of Spring Valley (SD D3) 5-5

Comments: We do think that Redding Christian (a state champion last year in D7-AA) should be moving up this year and a good spot for the Lions (who have the longest current winning streak in the state on-the-field at 23 games) may be here and opposite Ferndale (not bad for travel reasons). Ferndale also has a better computer ranking than the projected NCS D3 or D4 winners. As a small school moving up, Rio Hondo Prep knows a lot about that in the Southern Section. The Kares have gone down this year with a team not as potent as last year (lost in D2-A state final to Sonora) but still looks strong enough to us to win in the SS D8 bracket. In fact, RHP has a better computer ranking than Barstow. We haven’t seen the CIF, however, hardly ever go against the 1 through 14 divisional winners in its regional bowl games. Steele Canyon, meanwhile, has losses to Helix, Granite Hills and Santa Fe Christian with a good win vs San Diego High.

DIVISION 5-AA
Chowchilla (Central D4) 11-0 vs Calaveras of San Andreas (SJS D7) 9-1
San Marino (CIFSS D9) 9-1* vs Nogales of La Puente (CIFSS D10) 11-0

Comments: Calaveras won the D5-A state title last season so we would move up the RedHawks one division for this year if they win another section title. They are the top seed in their bracket. Chowchilla not only is unbeaten but also looks like an easy call to be the second team from the Central Section along with Central East to be in the north. Remember, to make the brackets of equal size on both sides not counting opt-outs if there are any, it has be four from the Central Section in the south with two in the north. The other four projected title teams would all clearly be in the south (Garces, Independence, Shafter and Boron). Chowchilla doesn’t have a high of a computer ranking as Calaveras, but it’s higher than Wilcox and San Leandro and we like the geographical distance between those two schools. For the south, this is the one division in which we’ve placed two CIFSS projected winners against each other. Nogales also actually has a higher computer ranking than San Marino as well. Plus, the two schools are in the same San Gabriel Valley region of the CIF.

DIVISION 5-A
Wilcox of Santa Clara (CCS D3) 4-6 vs. San Leandro (NCS D3) 9-1
Valley Center (SD D4) 5-5 vs. Foothill of Bakersfield (Central D5) 10-0*

Comments: Foothill is a bit of a mystery since the Trojans are unbeaten on the field but have seven forfeit losses. If they make it to the regionals, we would expect the CIF to place them competitively where they should be and not based on forfeits. They also are D5 in their section and may not be higher than any of the other teams in their section, including Chowchilla. It could be higher than D5-A, but for now this is where we see it. Valley Center is only 5-5, but won the D6-AA state title last year with a similar starting point so we would move up the Jaguars to D5-A. We like the Wilcox-San Leandro pairing for many reasons, but a 239 computer ranking for the Chargers compared to 226 for the Pirates also shows how similar those teams are. Wilcox just has a worse record for being in a tougher league.

DIVISION 6-AA
East Nicolaus of Nicolaus (Northern D4) 9-1 vs. Redwood of Larkspur (NCS D4) 8-2
Xavier Prep of Palm Desert (CIFSS D11) 5-6 vs. Boron (Central Sec D6) 9-1*

Comments: When you get down into the lower divisions, the advantages for NorCal teams become more obvious, with their two teams with computer rankings 100 to 200 spots higher than the South teams. It shows the differences between how some CIF sections handle competitive equity with others. East Nic just lost its first game to Paradise. Redwood got a lot of attention recently for handing Ukiah its first loss after eight wins. If Boron wins its section title, that’s good for the CIF since that school is so far south. It will save travel miles for example for teams having to go to the Bakersfield area.

DIVISION 6-A
Balboa of San Francisco (SF Section) 6-3 vs. Aptos (CCS D4) 7-3
Morse of San Diego (SD D5) 6-5 vs. Carter of Rialto (CIFSS D12) 8-3

Comments: Morse lost in the state final in this same division last year to Winters and we have the Tigers back in the same division if they can win their section title. It’s easy to see that Rialto High is top seed in the CIFSS D13 playoffs, but to us it looks like the two Rialto schools would be a bit too far apart from a computer ranking standpoint to be placed in the same regional. In the north, we have Balboa moving up after a 42-8 win in the D7-A state final last year over South El Monte. That also is the third time that the Bucs have won a state title in the lowest division. If they don’t move up, then what’s all that talk about competitive equity?

DIVISION 7-AA
Moreau Catholic of Hayward (NCS D6) 5-5 vs. Orland (Northern D3) 6-5
Rialto (CIFSS) 4-7 vs. Jefferson of Los Angeles (LA City D2) 8-3

Comments: Moreau won the 7-AA state title two years ago. Orland has a recent CIF state title in D5-A from 2022. Both are top seeds in their respective section playoffs. In the south, Rialto and Jefferson are not only top seeds but have already played a game and won in their playoffs.

DIVISION 7-A
Sequoia of Redwood City (CCS D5) 5-5 vs. McKinleyville (NCS D7) 7-3
San Gabriel (CIFSS D14) 6-4 vs. Roosevelt of Los Angeles (LA City D3) 2-9

Comments: Yes, Roosevelt got a top seed in that competitive equity based bracket of the LA City Section with a 1-9 record and then won its first-round game last week. That is the lowest ranked team from either north or south by far in these projections, but someone has to play the Rough Riders. McKinleyville in the north has a win over Ferndale, but as the projected NCS D7 winner would be in the D7-A bracket for state. The team’s computer ranking (529) also is second-lowest among teams we checked out in the north. Sequoia has the lowest at 540.

Mark Tennis is the co-founder and publisher of CalHiSports.com. He can be reached at markjtennis@gmail.com. Don’t forget to follow Mark on the Cal-Hi Sports Twitter handle: @CalHiSports