CIF Regional Bowl Game Projections

Junior Curtis of San Diego Lincoln looks for yardage during last year’s CIF D1-AA state final vs Pittsburg. At right are players from Balboa of San Francisco, who will likely have to do it in a higher division to win another CIF state title. Photos: Scott Kurtz & balboabuccaneerfootball / Instagram.com.

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Before going through all of the possible matchups, there are several major, important reminders for all to consider. We need to make them every year since new people undoubtedly are looking at it for the first time.

First, there are always upsets in section playoffs in which the top seeded team in a bracket is knocked off in a section final or earlier. Each team listed in these projections is either the highest seeded team remaining in that bracket or it’s the team with the highest MaxPreps computer ranking.

For teams that are ranked in our own Cal-Hi Sports State TOP 50 or have been in our medium/small schools state rankings we are also going to tend to list those teams in the same order as those rankings and not the computer. There are no medium/small schools rankings this week. We’ll return to those for the week leading into the state finals and then there will be final medium/small plus our final five division format that goes back to 1975.

Second, teams can opt out of participating in the CIF regional/state championships. There haven’t been any in a division higher than D4 but there have been in the lower divisions, especially small schools from rural Northern California. We don’t know of any yet but the CIF will know about which ones have opted out long before there is a meeting held to finalize this year’s games.

The CIF also has a lot of flexibility in moving teams from the CIF Central Section to the north or south brackets. It has historically been the case in the regional football games for schools in the Fresno area of the section to be in the north while those from the Bakersfield area have been in the south. Last year, there also was a new CIF Central Section champion that was on the board from its D1-A bracket. That increased the number of Central Section champions to seven instead of six. Last year, in order to even out the same number of teams in the north and south, the two teams from the Central Section that went to the north were Kerman and Central East. There were five that went to the south and it seems as if that same breakdown will happen again. In the past, the CIF has had figure out awarding byes in the regional finals. There were no byes last year and using the same 5-2 split there wouldn’t be any this year unless there are opt outs.

Travel also is a big priority for the CIF in some of the matchups and they do tend to not want to have teams that have already played each other playing again in a regional matchup. There also is a preference for teams from the same section not playing each other, but that is unavoidable in the south where there are 14 teams from the Southern Section. In some cases, teams from the same section playing each other become obvious and besides sometimes it’s a case in which local bragging rights will mean a good attendance number. The CIF usually doesn’t admit that more dollars coming in from a bigger gate is a factor in some of these decisions, but it just has to be a factor and we believe it has been in the past.

Each CIF section provides its own list of teams to the CIF after its section finals are complete and in a recommended order of placement. The CIF doesn’t have to go by that order, but in most cases it does. The section commissioners already have been talking to assistant commissioner Brian Seymour about its various teams and they will have gone over a lot of the sticking points before the commissioners even meet up on the Sunday morning to make the final selections.

“As some scenarios end up not happening, we just continue to go down the list and we’ll talk more and more after each week,” Seymour said last year of those discussions. “By the end, the hardest part for us is finding locations for these games.”

We hope every team listed below ends up on the board and good luck to all of them in the upcoming weekend.

CIF state championship games on Dec. 12-13 will be played at Saddleback College (Mission Viejo), Buena Park High School and Fullerton Union High School District Stadium. Exact dates, times and locations will be revealed on Sunday, Dec. 7 after all of the regional winners are decided. Last season, the Open, D1AA, D1A, D2AA and D2A championship games were all held at Saddleback College.

OPEN DIVISION
Sierra Canyon of Chatsworth (CIFSS D1) 10-0 vs.
De La Salle of Concord (NCS Open) 10-0

Comments: As usual, it’s pretty straightforward at the top. The CIFSS D1 playoffs aren’t just Mater Dei and St. John Bosco anymore. Those two could of course play once again in the title game, but Sierra Canyon by all accounts has the type of team that could break the cycle this time. Mater Dei also has lost games this season to Santa Margarita and Corona Centennial, but looked impressive in the second half of the win vs the Braves. De La Salle in the north has been locked in for a few weeks and it will take a big upset probably in the NCS Open final by Pittsburg to prevent the Spartans from the Open Division. Simply put, Pitt isn’t as strong as last season when it had a chance to beat DLS in the NCS Open final while the Spartans have been better than last season.

Jameson Powell caught three TD passes during Folsom’s 56-42 win earlier this season at Serra of San Mateo. Photo: Mark Tennis / Cal-Hi Sports.

Folsom (Sac-Joaquin Sec D1) 9-1 vs. Archbishop Riordan of San Francisco (CCS Open) 10-0
Mission Hills of San Marcos (SD Open) 9-1 vs. Los Alamitos (CIFSS D2) 9-2

Comments: Folsom has won four straight titles in the top SJS division and is a solid favorite for five in a row. Riordan got the big win over Serra last Friday, but will likely have to beat the Padres again in the CCS Open final. If Serra were to win, then Pitt likely moves up. The Pirates beat Folsom in last year’s NorCal D1-AA final and if there is a rematch it probably would be at Folsom since the Bulldogs were on the road last year. Down south, it’s going to be the San Diego Open winner (no matter which of the four teams wins that title) vs the CIFSS D2 winner. We’re listing Los Al as our own highest ranked team from that group, but Murrieta Valley is the top seed and Rancho Cucamonga was the most impressive winner in the first round (45-8 vs Tustin). The SD Open vs CIFSS D2 matchup has been that way for the last few years and there’s nothing out there that suggests it would be any different in 2025.

DIVISION 1-A

Pittsburg (NCS D1) 9-1 vs. Central East of Fresno (Central D1AA) 9-1
Pacifica of Oxnard (CIFSS D3) 11-0 vs. Lincoln of San Diego (SD D1) 8-2

Comments: Lincoln was the CIF D1-AA state champ last year and in 2022 and didn’t make it into the top four for the SD Open bracket (which it probably should have). The Hornets’ toughest challenge in the section’s second-best bracket probably will be from Granite Hills of El Cajon (which is the defending champion). Pacifica is not the top seed for the CIFSS D3 playoffs, but we have had the Tritons higher among those teams and haven’t had a reason to switch it. Top seed Bishop Amat and Pacifica are playing in this week’s quarterfinal. Up north, we would project Pitt to lose to De La Salle in the NCS Open final, then come back the following week and win the NCS D1 title. Cardinal Newman of Santa Rosa is the No. 3 seed in the combined bracket. We’re going against our own rankings a bit by putting Central East from the Central Section opposite Pitt and Manteca now in a lower division. Yes, the who-beat-who scenarios say it’s different, but the Bengals should get a shot at winning the title in the same division in which they lost in a close game last season in the title game to Edison (Huntington Beach). They have been dominant in their section, too.

DIVISION 2-AA

Manteca (SJS D2) 10-0 vs. Serra of San Mateo (CCS D1) 6-4
Charter Oak of Covina (CIFSS D4) 10-1 vs Bakersfield Christian (Central D1A) 10-0

Comments: The CCS playoffs has a similar bracket as the NCS in that the losing team in the Open Division final comes back the next week and plays the No. 3, No. 4, No. 5 or No. 6 seed in a title game the following week. Serra would be in that spot for now after losing to Riordan last Friday. Manteca may be 10-0 and has a big win over Cardinal Newman but still will have to prove it can beat a Sierra Foothill League team when it counts and may have to beat St. Mary’s of Stockton next week in what would be a highly anticipated San Joaquin County matchup. Granite Bay, Del Oro and Rocklin from the SFL also are in the bracket. Down south, Charter Oak is the top seed for the CIFSS D4 playoffs, won its first round game and lost its only game 28-21 to Corona del Mar (which was in the CIFSS D2 playoffs). Bakersfield Christian fell in last year’s D2-A regional final to Palos Verdes and could be stronger this season. The Eagles are higher in their section as well so we would have them one division higher for the regional bowls.

QB Jordan Crisp has passed for more than 10,000 yards in his career for Tulare. Photo: X.com.

Woodcreek of Roseville (SJS D3) 9-1 vs McClymonds of Oakland (Oak) 8-2
Loyola of Los Angeles (CIFSS D5) 5-6 vs Tulare (Central D2) 8-2

Comments: We quickly noticed that both Loyola and St. Ignatius of San Francisco are on the board and how great it would be if it worked out that the oldest school in the south and the oldest in the north could play for a CIF state title. It probably wouldn’t happen as SI coming out of CCS D2 likely would be much lower on the NorCal bowl order. Loyola is down in SS D5 and while it’s been an up-and-down year for the Cubs that is a placement they can do some damage in. The top seed in that bracket, Torrance, lost to Redondo in the first round while No. 2 Troy of Fullerton (10-1) did not. The Warriors are playing Rio Hondo Prep (just 70 boys in the school) in this week’s quarterfinals. RHP won the CIFSS D5 title last season, then lost to Vanden in OT in the D3-AA state final, and is up one division this season. Tulare is top seed for its division, but Bakersfield (9-1) also is in that group. Up north, Woodcreek has lost only to Inderkum (D1 in the SJS) and has a win over Jesuit (D2). This is also where we’d place McClymonds, which has a loss to Riordan, another to California (San Ramon) but has a win vs St. Francis (Mountain View).

DIVISION 3-AA
Pleasant Valley of Chico (Northern Sec D2) 7-3 vs. Twelve Bridges of Lincoln (SJS D4) 10-0
Santa Fe Chr of Solana Beach (SD D2) 10-0 vs. Ventura (CIFSS D6) 9-2

Comments: Losing the way it did in last year’s D2-A state final to Palos Verdes does come into play for us in these projections, which is why we have put Twelve Bridges one division lower. The Raging Rhinos are on track to win a second straight section title. A possible regional matchup with Pleasant Valley works from a geographical standpoint compared to others and PV should be up there. It has a win vs Central Catholic of Modesto, only lost by one point to Cardinal Newman with other losses to out-of-state Spanish Springs (Nevada) and Inderkum (SJS D1). Losing RB Titus Andrus to injury will be a big concern. Down south, Santa Fe Christian is the top seed in an SD D2 bracket that also includes 10-0 Mission Bay of San Diego. Both teams had byes last week. We’re listing Ventura for SS D6 since it has a 34-23 win over second seed Moorpark. The top seed, Crespi of Encino, lost in its first-round game to Roosevelt of Eastvale (from the same league as Corona Centennial, Murrieta Valley, etc.). Ventura and Moorpark are playing again this week.

DIVISION 3-A
St. Ignatius of San Francisco (CCS D2) 4-6 vs. Sonora (SJS D6) 10-0
Palm Springs (CIFSS D7) 10-1 vs Shafter (Central D3) 10-1

Comments: The story here is that we’re putting Sonora (D6 in the SJS) higher than that section’s D5 winner. Could the Wildcats (have wins over Oakdale and Turlock) be even higher than D3-A? If Oakdale also wins a section title (which would be in D3), then of course. Sonora vs Twelve Bridges in a possible 13-0 vs 13-0 NorCal title game also will have to be at least discussed. SI is the top seed for its bracket despite some struggles compared to last season when it was the CCS Open champ. The Wildcats have posted wins in the last two weeks over Valley Christian and Sacred Heart Cathedral. Down south, Palm Springs is the top seed for its bracket and won its first-round game, 33-7, over Claremont. Shafter is top seed and played a first-round game last week with a 38-17 win vs Mission Prep (San Luis Obispo). We’re not sure if the Generals are going to have Boise State-bound RB Mariyon Sloan available as he’s been injured.

Standout RB Titus Andrus of Pleasant Valley will be out for the rest of this season with an injury. Photo: Hudl.com.

DIVISION 4-AA
Amador Valley of Pleasanton (NCS D2) 4-6 vs. Casa Roble of Orangevale (SJS D5) 9-1
Carson (LA City Open) 7-3 vs. Central of El Centro (SD D3) 8-2

Comments: The L.A. City Section Open Division had the Narbonne situation last season when the Gauchos were playing with most of their D1 guys and had to be placed in a higher bowl game division. It’s more back to normal this year. Carson is the top seed and we agree, but Palisades of Pacific Palisades at 10-0 is going to be the story many are going to watch. Central of El Centro is the top seed in the SD D3 bracket and had a bye last week. Up north, we’re listing Amador Valley (the defending champion) from NCS D2 despite 4-6 record. The Dons, under head coach Danny Jones who is leaving the school after this season to start up a new big school program in Idaho, have beaten both Monte Vista and California in their last two games. Three of their losses are to Open/D1 teams De La Salle, Liberty (Brentwood) and San Ramon Valley while two more are to Sac-Joaquin Section D1 playoff teams. Casa Roble had a huge win over Sutter in its regular season finale and may have to beat the Huskies again in the section final. Sutter is the three seed in the SJS D5 bracket with Hilmar in the two spot.

DIVISION 4-A
Woodside (CCS D3) 10-0 vs. St. Vincent de Paul of Petaluma (NCS D5) 9-1
Palm Desert (CIFSS D8) 8-3 vs Templeton (Central Sec D4) 10-0

Comments: Templeton is another 10-0 frontrunner from the Central Section and is top seed for its D4 bracket. Also at 10-0 in the same bracket is Immanuel of Reedley of McLane of Fresno. This is a good place to mention that last year the CIF had five teams from the Central Section in the south and two in the north. To make the north-south bowl games line up, it will again have to be the same numbers. Other than Central East and the TRAC for the north, the next most northern school that we have on our board is Liberty of Madera Ranchos. All of the others, including Templeton, will have to be in the south. Coalinga and Selma were in the south last year for the same reasons. Palm Desert is the top seed for the CIFSS D8 playoffs and won its first-round contest, 31-7, against Marina of Huntington Beach. Up north, St. Vincent de Paul is tricky. The D4-AA state champs from last year took a loss to Ukiah recently, but came back to beat Maria Carrillo of Santa Rosa last week, 39-14, for a three-way tie atop the Redwood Empire – Bay League. The Mustangs have a higher computer ranking than any of the NCS D3 or D4 playoff teams and we are putting them higher than any of them. They are not able to be placed any higher than D5 for the NCS playoffs as a Tier 2 team (Tier 1 is for those generally with much higher enrollments). They even have a slightly higher computer ranking than NCS D2 top seed Campolindo. In the CCS, unbeaten Woodside is the top seed in D3 and has a pretty decent computer ranking of 158 in the state.

DIVISION 5-AA
Liberty of Madera Ranchos (Central D5) 10-0 vs Gridley (Northern Sec D3) 10-0
Ramona of Riverside (CIFSS D9) 9-2 vs Pacifica of Garden Grove (CIFSS D10) 8-3

Comments: They are pretty close with their computer rankings and since Liberty is one of the two Central Section teams that we would place in the north, we like the idea of perhaps a matchup of unbeatens for the NorCal title with Gridley. Neither team has played a postseason game yet but both are top seeds in their brackets. Down south, this is one spot in which we’d place two CIFSS title teams in the same game. We’re going with Ramona for D9 after it knocked off top seed Silverado of Victorville, 21-14, and we see that the Rams have a 34-6 win over Riverside Poly, which beat No. 2 seed Santiago of Corona in the first round. Two years ago, they also won the CIF D5-AA state title (which is where we have them here). Pacifica started last week as the No. 3 seed in the CIFSS D10 bracket. The Mariners won their game, 35-14, over El Rancho of Pico Rivera while top two seeds Village Christian (Sun Valley) and Monrovia both lost.

DIVISION 5-A
Winters (Northern Sec D4) 9-1 vs. Vintage of Napa (NCS D3) 6-4
Minarets of O’Neals (Central D6) 10-1 vs. Venice (LA City D1) 6-5

Comments: We’re a little skeptical of the computer rankings for some of the Northern Section teams but for now we’ll go with Winters in D5-A. The Warriors just won a big game, 31-10, over previously unbeaten Pierce of Arbuckle and their only loss is to Gridley by one point. The NCS D3 bracket looks wide open with teams like Rancho Cotate, El Cerrito and Ukiah all quite capable of winning. We just are listing Vintage for the spot as the top seed. Down south, both teams we have in D5-A have both already won a playoff game. Minarets topped Sierra of Tollhouse, 45-6, while Venice beat Bell, 38-0. They also are both top seeds in their section brackets.

Matt Guimond has led Westview of San Diego to the first league title in school history. Photo: Westview HS / MaxPreps.com.

Comments: The teams we have in top positions for the CIFSS D11 playoffs and San Diego D4 also are very close to each other with a 12-spot difference in their computer rankings. We have South Pas for D11 after a 42-17 win last week vs San Marcos of Santa Barbara. The Tigers began as the No. 2 seed and would move up after top seed St. Anthony of Long Beach was upset by El Monte. Westview hasn’t played yet, but is top seed in its bracket. In its last regular season game, QB Matthew Guimond threw seven TD passes and was our SoCal Offensive Player of the Week. Up north, Branham and Calaveras are the top seeds in their brackets and neither has played yet. Calaveras would be coming out of the same SJS D7 bracket that produced CIF D6-A state champ Summerville of Tuolomne. Calaveras has a 21-7 win this season vs the Bears.

DIVISION 6-A
Benicia (NCS D4) 6-4 vs. Redding Christian (Northern Sec D5) 10-0
Sweetwater of National City (SD D5) 4-6 vs. Yucca Valley (CIFSS D12) 7-4

Comments: It’s a close call since both Benicia and top seed Hayward both have similar losses to American Canyon, but we like Benicia having a 43-7 win over No. 3 seed Miramonte and are going with the Panthers on these projections over the Farmers for NCS D4. Redding Christian has a higher state computer ranking than Calaveras, but it doesn’t hold up historically to put the smallest Northern Section champion higher than the smallest from the Sac-Joaquin. Down south, Sweetwater is the top seed for SD D5 and plays its first playoff game this week vs San Diego Hoover. The section still has a D5-A title game in which the winning team does not get to move on to a regional contest. For CIFSS D12, Yucca Valley is the top seed. The Trojans opened up their bracket with a 43-17 triumph over Costa Mesa.

DIVISION 7-AA
St. Helena (NCS D6) 10-0 vs. Balboa of San Francisco (SF AAA) 8-2
Cleveland of Reseda (LA City D2) 3-8 vs. Saddleback of Santa Ana (CIFSS D13) 9-2

Comments: The competitive equity for north/south in favor of the north may show itself a lot in the lower divisions of the state finals since we may have so many unbeaten teams in the lower divisions in the north. St. Helena from NCS D6 won’t have to deal with St. Vincent de Paul or Ferndale in D5, either. We are also placing Balboa of SF this year not in the lowest division as the Bucs have a better computer ranking than projected CCS D5 winner Piedmont Hills. They also won 55-27 last year in the 7-A game vs Pioneer of Whittier. Down south, the two lowest computer rankings for any of the CIF section champions is going to be for the LA City D2 and D3 winners. We think the CIF won’t have those two play each other for a regional title, but instead would match those two with the corresponding final two title teams from the Southern Section. All four projected winners look to be far below both the D6 team from the Central Section or the D5 from San Diego.

DIVISION 7-A
Piedmont Hills of San Jose (CCS D5) 7-3 vs. Middletown (NCS D7) 8-2
South El Monte of El Monte (CIFSS D14) 7-4 vs. Santee of Los Angeles (LA City D3) 7-4

Comments: Both Piedmont Hills and Middletown are starting those section playoffs this week as top seeds. South El Monte opened up its playoff push as top seed in its bracket with an easy 45-7 romp past Channel Islands of Oxnard. Santee also is top seed for LA City D3 and started out with a 40-8 win vs Locke of L.A. A long run for the Falcons also will determine how far up senior Darnell Miller can rise on season-ending state record lists for rushing yards. Miller had 241 yards and three TDs vs Locke and now has 2,485 yards and 30 total touchdowns on the season.

Mark Tennis is the co-founder and publisher of CalHiSports.com. He can be reached at markjtennis@gmail.com. Don’t forget to follow Mark on the Cal-Hi Sports Twitter handle: @CalHiSports