Upset Alerts Across The State

Based on this week's Upset Alerts, both John Carroll of Oceanside and Dave White from Edison of Huntington Beach could be coaching their teams in tough games on Friday.

Based on this week’s Upset Alerts, both John Carroll of Oceanside and Dave White from Edison of Huntington Beach could be coaching their teams in tough games on Friday.

After getting one of four correct last week, we march on, choosing four more in danger of getting upset. Watch out Oceanside, Huntington Beach Edison, Bellarmine and Sacramento Grant.

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It’s easy to pick winners in high school football. Just a tiny bit of homework and almost anyone can hit 70 percent.

But what about trying to pick upsets? We’ll move into the second week of a new feature by taking a look at several games from around the state in which a higher ranked team or favored team is predicted to take a loss.

Here are this week’s Cal-Hi Sports Upset Alerts (thanks to Paul Muyskens for helping on this post):

Carlsbad over Oceanside
Oceanside has already lost two games this season to teams that are 5-0 this season, Serra of Gardena and Mission Hills of San Marcos, and Carlsbad has yet to lose and is also 5-0. The Lancers don’t have a marquee win yet, but at home this week it is very possible. Yes, we know last year it was a 54-3 romp by the Pirates. But that’s why it’s fun to choose this one as an upset alert. Carlsbad opened the season with a 41-17 win over Great Oak of Temecula and has allowed just seven points over the last four games. Senior Christian Chapman has passed for 874 yards and 15 touchdowns with just one interception while the rushing attack has been a fairly balanced attack with seven different players running for scores. Coming off a bye week, it’ll be interesting to see who’s playing quarterback for the Pirates in the aftermath of their 30-6 loss to Mission Hills.

Huntington Beach over Edison (Huntington Beach)
Yes, it would be a big upset for Huntington Beach to beat the Chargers. But the elements are there. While Edison has lost its only two games to state-ranked Servite and Mater Dei, two of its wins to open the season against Compton Centennial and L.A. Garfield weren’t too inspiring. Huntington Beach’s two losses are to JSerra and Trabuco Hills in competitive games and the team just beat defending CIF Southern Section Southeast Division champ Downey 37-29. If the Oilers can get a huge game from versatile quarterback Kai Ross, they may have a chance.

St. Francis (Mountain View) over Bellarmine (San Jose)
Two weeks ago, the Bells were No. 11 in the statewide Top 25 and this week they are No. 19 after their 17-7 loss last Friday to San Mateo Serra. They may fall again, playing at 4-0 St. Francis, their biggest rival. The host Lancers have started strong due to their defense, which blanked Oak Grove of San Jose (28-0) and Palma of Salinas (26-0) to start the year. That unit has been especially strong at nailing plays behind the line of scrimmage with 34 in its four games. Senior DE John Powers (with seven tackles for loss) tops the squad in that category. For Bellarmine, one of the problems in the Serra game was scoring touchdowns to complete drives. The Bells should escape Mountain View with a win if they can convert a few more of those opporunities. It still figures to be one of those low-scoring WCAL slugfests and a good chance for the underdog Lancers.

Franklin (Elk Grove) over Grant (Sacramento)
After getting our CIF Sac-Joaquin Section upset pick last week correct with Escalon defeating Hughson 31-11, we were tempted to pick Hughson to bounce back and upset Ripon this week . Instead, but we’re going with the Wildcats to knock off the Pacers, who are ranked No. 11 in our DI North rankings. Grant opened the season with three straight wins but have now lost two straight, although both of those losses were just by three points to Oak Ridge of El Dorado Hills and Del Oro of Loomis, who are both in the top 10 of our DI North rankings. The Wildcats have also been struggling lately as they have lost two of their last three games, but those losses also were to teams ranked in our DI North rankings (Oak Ridge and Jesuit of Carmichael). In a game that stands out, the Wildcats earlier this season went to Tracy, which is currently 4-1 and a potential league champion, and returned home with a convincing 45-14 win. Last season, the Wildcats went to Sacramento and defeated the Pacers 34-26 and with this year’s game at home we think they can beat Grant again.

Last week’s top upsets
1. Norco 38, Alemany (Mission Hills) 27
2. Liberty Ranch (Galt) 20, Vista del Lago (Folsom) 14
3. Righetti (Santa Maria) 20, St. Joseph (Santa Maria) 14

Upset Alerts So Far This Season: 1-3

Note: Pick your own upset alerts in the comments section below. Anybody for Servite over Mater Dei? An upset alert contest also may be coming soon.

Mark Tennis is the co-founder and publisher of CalHiSports.com. He can be reached at markjtennis@gmail.com. Don’t forget to follow him on Twitter: @CalHiSports


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17 Comments

  1. arhs stats
    Posted October 10, 2013 at 2:32 pm | Permalink

    Archbishop Riordan beats cross town rival Saint Ignatius

  2. RedBird
    Posted October 10, 2013 at 4:12 pm | Permalink

    Pretty impressive that St. Francis is giving up an average of 4.5 points/game (18 pts total) thru 4 games. 2nd best average in the state.

  3. jimerpop
    Posted October 11, 2013 at 2:36 am | Permalink

    You shouldn’t under estimate the Ripon Indians. Take a look at their defensive lineman Kody Day. According to Escalon coach Mark Loureiro he’s a one man wrecking crew and was the main reason Escalon couldn’t do anything offensively vs. Ripon. They also have a sophomore QB who is pretty good.

  4. RedBird
    Posted October 11, 2013 at 8:22 am | Permalink

    Jimerpop,
    Ripon looks really good this year. I hope they meet CC in the playoffs. What a great match-up to see Ripon D-line vs CC O-line.

  5. Posted October 11, 2013 at 10:06 am | Permalink

    I saw St. Francis against St. Ignatius last Saturday and their defense is impressive…the problem they had against an SI team that despite being 0-4 is pretty good defensively, is they themselves were unable to mount and or sustain long drives…if both defenses take over this could come down to one play near the end…

  6. Posted October 11, 2013 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    The East Bay (if not the entire Bay Area) game of the week has to be Foothill of Pleasanton(6-0) at California of San Ramon(4-1). Most rankings have Cal noticeably ahead of Foothill so this and home field advantage would make Cal the favorite.
    However, Foothill’s junior QB, Kyle Kearns, has been phenominal this season,(although most rating services have him at 4 stars, he’s not been getting much Bay Area media attention) and the Falcon receivers have been hanging on to his passes very well. Also, the Falcon D has been holding their opponents to less than 7 points a game average. Coach Sweeney is one of the best at making ultimate use of his players’ football ability.
    The Grizzly coach, Eric Bilici, is no slouch at getting the most from his players either. But Cal does not have the speed in their backfield and receiving corps that they’ve had in recent past years. Their defense is questionable, averaging more than 21 points a game. The Grizzlies’ overall balanced offense has averaged over 34 points a game compared to 42.5 for the Falcons mostly through the air. Other than Pittsburg(whom Cal lost to 33-35 on the road), both teams strength of schedule have been somewhat close.
    This should be a great game. Hopefully the officiating will be decent. Although on the road and the underdog, I have the Foothill Falcons with a decisive win.

    • Posted October 11, 2013 at 1:31 pm | Permalink

      I will be at the Foothill at California game tonight…just about to Tweet it out…this game will say a lot about who is emerging from EBAL as the top dawg

      • monte300
        Posted October 11, 2013 at 2:57 pm | Permalink

        You’re probably right Harold but folks at SRV may take offense not being mentioned.

  7. monte300
    Posted October 11, 2013 at 1:14 pm | Permalink

    Kearns will get the media attention when he puts up some big numbers against EBAL foes. Cal High’s defense has stepped up the past couple of weeks. Like Foothill, Amador’s defense wasn’t giving up much until they faced the constant pounding of the Cal running game. Vintage, Las Lomas and Novato are nowhere near the caliber of Castro Valley or even Washington. Cal beat Foothill badly twice last year with a similar team. Should be a good game tonight.

    • Posted October 11, 2013 at 1:34 pm | Permalink

      Kearns is high on my list and is part of the reason I’m going to the game…in my other gig doing college recruiting for XOS Digital he’s on ours and several colleges radar screens

      • monte300
        Posted October 11, 2013 at 2:36 pm | Permalink

        Kearns is a good player just not real popular in these parts since he lives in the Cal High school district.

  8. bpromero
    Posted October 11, 2013 at 11:54 pm | Permalink

    Well you weren’t close on the Carlsbad upset prediction. Oceanside Pirates get back on track by putting a beat down on the overrated Lancers 28-7. Pirates QB Matthew Romero picks apart the Lancer “d” for 166 yards passing and 2 td passes.

    • Mark Tennis
      Posted October 12, 2013 at 10:55 am | Permalink

      Only one we were close on was St. Francis-Bellarmine.
      Of all the teams in the top 25 and on the bubble, the only team to get upset was Alemany by Loyola.
      They actually don’t happen too often to the top teams, which is why it’s fun to try to pick out a few each week.

  9. Posted October 12, 2013 at 8:58 am | Permalink

    Gotta eat crow: Cal 24 Foothill 7! After a couple of early possession key drops, Kyle Kearns was off nearly all night (and so was I). Kudos to the Cal team and Coach Billeci for playing a great game and drawing up an excellent game plan, especially on D. Also to Monte300: you knew what you were talking about. And, especially to the Grizzly Boosters for putting on the terrific haltime fireworks show!

    • monte300
      Posted October 12, 2013 at 9:15 am | Permalink

      Thanks Rono, EBAL is ALL I know. For the record Kyle Kearns is an excellent QB, young man and college prospect. My comment sounded like he’s not liked in the town of San Ramon, simply not a true statement. There’s some friendly rivalry between the kids that all grew up playing youth football together and now they are on different sides. My apologies for the statement I made.

  10. Thomas Gutierrez
    Posted October 12, 2013 at 9:54 am | Permalink

    Oceanside’s defense is great, but their offense against Carlsbad was an illusion i.e ” Smoke and Mirrors.” The 2 td passes were tipped and Carlsbad was not a good team. Pirates must think beyond the surface level scoreboard.

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